@Article{FerreiraAlVeArNoBi:2020:ImPaMi,
author = "Ferreira, Rute Costa and Alves J{\'u}nior, Mario Paulo and
Vendrasco, {\'E}der Paulo and Arav{\'e}quia, Jos{\'e}
Ant{\^o}nio and Nolasco J{\'u}nior, Luciano Ritter and Biscaro,
Thiago Souza",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
de Controle do Espa{\c{c}}o A{\'e}reo} and {Instituto Nacional
de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)}",
title = "Impacto das parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es de microf{\'{\i}}sica na
previs{\~a}o de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o utilizando
assimila{\c{c}}{\~a}o de dados de radar",
journal = "Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia",
year = "2020",
volume = "35",
number = "1",
pages = "123--134",
keywords = "parametriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o de microf{\'{\i}}sica,
assimila{\c{c}}{\~a}o de dados de radar, WRF e Wmicrophysics
parameterization, radar data assimilation, WRF and WRFDA.RFDA.",
abstract = "Trabalhos recentes mostram que a assimila{\c{c}}{\~a}o de dados
melhora a efic{\'a}cia dos modelos de previs{\~a}o de tempo,
contudo o impacto da assimila{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos dados de radar
{\'e} pouco quantificado com rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a}s
parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es f{\'{\i}}sicas do modelo,
especialmente de microf{\'{\i}}sica. O objetivo deste trabalho
{\'e} estudar o impacto do uso de dados de radar com diferentes
parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es de microf{\'{\i}}sica do modelo
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) com seu sistema de
assimila{\c{c}}{\~a}o de dados (WRFDA-3DVAR) para casos de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o intensa. Foram selecionados tr{\^e}s
eventos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o em 2014, com {\'a}rea de
estudo abrangendo o oeste da regi{\~a}o sul do Brasil e sudeste
do Paraguai. Desta forma, s{\~a}o avaliados nove esquemas de
parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es de microf{\'{\i}}sica com
assimila{\c{c}}{\~a}o de dados convencionais e de radar, para
determinar qual representa de forma mais adequada a
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e refletividade nas previs{\~o}es de
curto prazo, al{\'e}m de determinar o impacto relativo entre as
mudan{\c{c}}as de microf{\'{\i}}sica e a
assimila{\c{c}}{\~a}o de dados convencionais e de radar. A
compara{\c{c}}{\~a}o realizada atrav{\'e}s da m{\'e}trica
estat{\'{\i}}stica Fractional Skill Score (FSS) mostra o impacto
positivo da assimila{\c{c}}{\~a}o de dados do radar foi na
m{\'e}dia de at{\'e} 20% no FSS, enquanto que o impacto positivo
entre as op{\c{c}}{\~o}es de microf{\'{\i}}sica atingiu 70%.
ABSTRACT: Recent studies show that data assimilation improves the
efficiency of weather forecast models, however, it is not properly
quantified the impacts of radar data assimilation related to the
physical model parameterizations, especially the microphysics. The
goal of this study was to study the impact of the use of radar
data with different microphysics parameterizations of the Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with its data assimilation
system (WRFDA3DVAR) for cases of intense precipitation. The study
area covers the South-western Brazil and Southeastern Paraguay.
The simulations were done for three cases in 2014. The comparison
is performed through the statistical metrics Fractional Skill
Score (FSS) and Local Root Mean Square Error (LRMSE). Different
microphysics parameterizations were tested when assimilating
conventional and radar data for three events. Thus, we evaluated
nine microphysical parameterizations in order to determine which
one provides the most realistic short-term forecasts of
meteorological fields over the radar coverage, as well as the
relative impact of different microphysical parameterization and
the assimilation of conventional and radar data. The positive
impact of the radar data assimilation was in the average up to 20%
in the FSS, while the positive impact among the microphysics
options reached 70% in the FSS.",
doi = "10.1590/0102-778635100",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-778635100",
issn = "0102-7786",
language = "pt",
targetfile = "ferreira_impacto.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}